Collective anxiety about changes to the electoral system which threaten to relegate half the current legislators to the unemployment line and infighting over nominations for the 2008 presidential election account for the upheaval in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) over the past week, political analysts said.

The unexpected cancellation of the DPP's debate on China policy (thanks in part to the lack of communication between the party and the Executive Yuan), the withdrawal of a dissatisfied lawmaker from the party, the decision of a group of young lawmakers to launch a conference on party reform and the all-time low approval ratings for President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and the party as a whole all suggest that the DPP is in trouble.

Approval ratings

According to a poll conducted by Shih Hsin University and the party's own internal survey, approval ratings for both Chen and the DPP have slumped to about 18 percent.

Although Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) current popularity (characterized by the media as the "Ma Ying-jeou phenomenon") hasn't helped, analysts believe that elections -- next year's legislative elections and the presidential election in 2008 -- are the real root of the problem.

"The major cause of the DPP lawmakers' anxiety attacks is not Ma, but the new electoral system that will be adopted for the legislative elections in 2006," said Shih Cheng-feng (施正鋒), a political science professor at Tamkang University.

"Now everyone in the DPP knows that their jobs are at risk," Shih said.

The new single-member district and two-vote electoral system will deny many DPP legislators the opportunity of winning re-election given that a redistribution of constituencies will benefit the pan-blue camp, which has stronger grassroots support. Over 70 percent of township and village heads are KMT members. In addition, the number of seats in the legislature will be cut from 225 to 113.

With this in mind, several legislators have their backs against the wall and are desperate to defend their positions.

However, the single biggest cause of the internal strife in the DPP is the battle for the party's 2008 presidential election nomination, according to Shih.

"For the KMT or the pan-blues as a whole, it is obvious that Ma is the one who will run in 2008 and he has already begun his campaign. But for the DPP, the nomination is still wide open. The later the DPP's presidential candidate is unveiled, the worse the problem will become," Shih said.

However, Chen, who needs to keep all his wits about him if he is to avoid becoming a lame duck president for the remainder of his term, is unlikely to advance the nomination, Shih said.

"Chen is the one person who is capable of putting an end to the fighting between the party's factions. But the infighting suits him because it prevents elements in the party from uniting against him," Shih said.

Lee Chun-yee (李俊毅), convener of the Welfare State Alliance, a DPP faction, has been quite outspoken on the matter, saying that Chen's low approval rating had not driven him to reflect on his leadership or take steps to share power among party members. Instead, according to Lee, the president was consolidating his position even further, a fact which irritated many lawmakers.

"Whether to cooperate with the factions or to stand alone as the president is a thorny problem for Chen," Shih said.

Meanwhile, Ku Chung-hwa (顧忠華), a political analyst and a sociology professor at National Chengchi University pointed out that the DPP's current problems are not a new phenomenon but stem from the day that Chen came to power in 2000.

"The DPP has never profoundly pondered its role as a governing party since it won the 2000 presidential election," Ku said.

"The function and operation of the party is undermined because most of the DPP's members have their eyes on governmental positions," he said.

Depleted manpower

Many of the DPP's officials became government officials after 2000, which has seriously depleted the party's manpower and leadership and also prevented the party from developing coherent policies, Ku said.

"From its chairperson to its departmental directors, the DPP's turnover is just too high," Ku said. "If active, insightful people held the right positions within the DPP for a long enough period of time and focused on the party's development and worked to extend its social influence, the DPP would not be suffering as it is now," Ku said.

"To be frank, too many people want government positions. For them, the party is either a shortcut to government office or a consolation prize. With this mindset, the DPP's crisis is quite predictable," he said.

Nevertheless, Ku believes the DPP still has the ability to make a comeback. "The party as a whole needs to take a good look at itself. It would not help to blame specific people," Ku said.